The Russian revolution in the Eastern Europe is a mirror of the Arab Spring, which represented the revolutionary wave of demonstrations occurred in the Arab World in 2010-2011.
The Arab chain of revolutions ended with the US' temporary agreement with Russia to move the American missile shield from Poland to these (mostly) North African states, further from Russia's borders.
After Russia resolved the problem of Ukraine, ousting Yushchenko, now Romania, Hungary and Slovakia are scheduled to turn left.
Poland is still a battlefield and a big question mark. We'll see if Russia succeeds to take Poland as well, like it plans to take Romania, Hungary and Slovakia.
Conclusion:
Russia fights to push away the US' missile shield, at the same time trying to fortify its borders.
Below is a map with the revolutionary events that took place
since 2010, up to the current day:
MAP LEGEND:
BLUE: Resolved by Russia a while aback
RED: Taken by the US
YELLOW: Russian Revolution unfolding
DOTTED RED: Case unresolved by US
DOTTED YELLOW: Case unresolved by Russia
EASTERN EUROPE
RUSSIAN-BACKED REVOLUTIONS:
1. HUNGARY:
Hungarians protest en masse against new constitution
(AFP) – Jan 2, 2012
Protesters denounced the government of Viktor Orban, with the socialist MSZP, the green-leftist LMP and former prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsany's DK taking part in the rally. Politicians were not allowed to take the stage.
2. SLOVAKIA:
Updated 10:32 p.m., Thursday, January 19, 2012
In Slovakia, meanwhile, opinion polls predict a probable return to power in March elections for Robert Fico, a former left-wing prime minister who has also worried Western diplomats with a sympathetic approach toward authoritarian states. Fico took Russia's side during its 2008 war with Georgia — bucking a trend across the former Soviet bloc to express concern over Moscow's use of power. He has also celebrated Fidel Castro's Cuban revolution.
3. ROMANIA:
4:18 p.m. CST, January 19, 2012
About 7,000 opposition supporters rallied in Bucharest earlier on Thursday to demand the government's resignation
The rally was organized by the leftist opposition USL to press for the resignation of Prime Minister Emil Boc's centrist coalition and his ally President Traian Basescu.
4. POLAND - STILL A BATTLEFIELD:
In striking contrast to trouble in much of the region, there is one relative oasis: Poland, the largest of the 10 ex-communist states that joined the EU in recent years. Its economy has seen unusual dynamism given the difficult times, thanks in some part to massive infrastructure projects in recent years as Poland prepares to co-host this summer's European football championships with Ukraine.
But economists fear that its economy, too, could lose momentum after the Euro 2012 and with far-ranging austerity measures set to start taking effect this year in an effort to keep state debt from spiraling out of control.
The 2012 UEFA European Football Championship is commonly referred to as Euro 2012.
The final tournament will be hosted by Poland and Ukraine between 8 June and 1 July 2012.
U.S.-Poland Missile Plan Enters into Force
By Merle David Kellerhals Jr. Staff Writer 15 September 2011
By 2015, land-based SM-3 interceptors will begin being deployed in Romania and then in Poland by 2018, according to the White House.
U.S. Likely to Press On With Missile Defense in Poland
January 12, 2012, 1:16 PM CET
Russia says missile defense deal with US still possible, but time running out
By Associated Press, Published: January 18
MOSCOW — A deal with Washington to assuage Moscow’s concerns about U.S. missile defense plans in Europe is still possible, but time is running out, Russia’s foreign minister said Wednesday.
Sergey Lavrov reaffirmed that Moscow will take retaliatory action if moves by Washington to deploy missile shield components around Europe pose a threat to Russia.
5. BULGARIA:
Bulgaria Won't Host US, NATO Missile Shield Facilities - Defense Min
Defense May 5, 2011, Thursday
Bulgaria will not be hosting elements of the US and NATO missile defense system in Europe, at least for the time being, Defense Minister Anyu Angelov announced.
NORTH AFRICAN US-BACKED REVOLUTIONS:
1. US' MISSILE SHIELD MOVED FROM POLAND TO THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA:
US launches new missile defense program for Europe
Wednesday, 02 March 2011
The United States is sending a special radar-equipped warship to the Mediterranean Sea next week, the first step in the development of a broad anti-ballistic missile system to protect Europe against a potential Iranian nuclear threat, the Pentagon said Tuesday.
The move marks the first of the Obama administration's four-phase plan to put land- and sea-based radars and interceptors in several European locations during the next decade.
Under the plan laid out by the Obama administration in 2009, the missile shield would begin with ship-based anti-missile interceptors and radars. Later this year, the United States plans to add land-based radars in southern Europe. Plumb said officials are still in discussions with several nations, but the exact location for those radars had not yet been determined.
In phase two, land-based interceptors would be deployed in Romania in 2015, followed by the placement of interceptors in Poland in 2018.
The Bush administration first proposed stationing 10 interceptor missiles in Poland and an advanced radar in the Czech Republic. But Russia angrily objected and warned that it would station its own missiles close to Poland if the plan went through.
In September 2009, the Obama administration shelved that plan and offered the new, reconfigured phased program.
2. THE ARAB SPRING:
The Arab Spring (Arabic: الربيع العربي ar-Rabīʻ al-ʻArabiyy), otherwise known as the Arab Awakening,[1] is a revolutionary wave of demonstrations and protests occurring in the Arab world that began on Saturday, 18 December 2010.
To date, there have been revolutions in TunisiaHYPERLINK \l "cite_note-tropicpost-1"[2] and Egypt;[3] a civil war in Libya resulting in the fall of its government;[4] civil uprisings in Bahrain,[5] Syria,[6] and Yemen, the latter resulting in the resignation of the Yemeni prime minister;[7] major protests in Algeria,[8] Iraq,[9] Jordan,[10] Kuwait,[11] Morocco,[12] and Oman;[13] and minor protests in Lebanon,[14] Mauritania, Saudi Arabia,[15] Sudan,[16] and Western Sahara.[
3. SPAIN:
Russia criticizes latest U.S. missile defense deal
MOSCOW Thu Oct 6, 2011 5:59am EDT
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia said on Thursday moves by the United States to create a NATO-wide missile shield could undermine its security, ramping up criticism of the project following a new deal that will see U.S. anti-missile warships deployed on the Spanish coast.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/06/us-russia-usa-missiles-idUSTRE7951R620111006
4. TURKEY:
US military early warning radar station goes online in Turkey despite opposition
January 18, 2012
==========================================
FULL-LENGTH ARTICLES:
Romanian riots reveal growing gloom in region
ALISON MUTLER, Associated Press, VANESSA GERA, Associated Press
Updated 10:32 p.m., Thursday, January 19, 2012
BUCHAREST, Romania (AP) — Romanian cities are gripped by the worst street violence in over a decade. Slovaks seem poised to re-elect a confrontational and divisive populist. Hungary alarms the European Union with laws that erode democratic rights.
In former Soviet bloc nations now part of the EU, frustration is mounting due to economic stagnation and worrisome governance, encouraging street protests and unpredictability that could further jeopardize growth and stability in an already troubled part of the continent.
Many of the problems are common far beyond the region: indebted states hiking taxes and slashing state spending to stay solvent. But the added burdens come to a region that was already grappling with much deeper poverty and corruption than in the West before the global financial crisis hit.
In recent days, the situation has played out most dramatically in Romania, where pent-up fury with the government and an eroding standard of living exploded into days of street protests that at times turned violent. In Bucharest over the weekend, 59 people were injured in fighting that saw riot police turn tear gas on protesters who attacked them with stones and firebombs.
"What happened last weekend is only the beginning," commentator Gabriel Bejan wrote in Tuesday's Romania Libera daily paper. "We are in an important electoral year and such confrontations will be frequent. What will they lead to when nobody seems willing to take a step back?"
Much of the frustration goes back to the way Romania transitioned to democracy after its 1989 coup against dictator Nicolae Ceausescu — with many former communists keeping control of power and resources. The results, today, are seen in entrenched cronyism, a huge gap between rich and poor and a lack of government transparency that feeds a widespread sense of injustice.
"The Mafioso government stole everything we had!" protesters declared on banners at several of the rallies that have taken place in more than a dozen Romanian cities since Thursday and appear set to go on.
Hungarians have also been taking to the streets with increased frequency in recent months over a new constitution and a blizzard of new laws that concentrate power for the right-wing Fidesz party of Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
Freedom House, a U.S. group that carries out a yearly global survey of political freedom and civil liberties, has observed "hints of re-emergent illiberalism" across central Europe, said Christopher Walker, the group's vice president for strategy and analysis.
This year's report, which was published Thursday, highlights what it sees as a deteriorating climate for civil liberties in Hungary due to threats to the independence of the press and the judiciary.
"Hungary has shown a bent towards illiberalism which is really inconsistent with the European idea," Walker said.
The EU agrees. On Tuesday the EU Commission launched legal challenges against Budapest over its new constitution and other laws which took effect Jan. 1, saying they undermine the independence of the national central bank and the judiciary and do not respect data privacy principles.
Orban's tightening hold on many institutions comes thanks to an overwhelming 2010 victory for his party on the heels of near economic collapse by the previous, Socialist-led government.
But the mounting EU pressure appeared to have some effect: EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said Wednesday that he received a letter from Orban promising to modify the legislation that raised EU concerns.
In Slovakia, meanwhile, opinion polls predict a probable return to power in March elections for Robert Fico, a former left-wing prime minister who has also worried Western diplomats with a sympathetic approach toward authoritarian states. Fico took Russia's side during its 2008 war with Georgia — bucking a trend across the former Soviet bloc to express concern over Moscow's use of power. He has also celebrated Fidel Castro's Cuban revolution.
In striking contrast to trouble in much of the region, there is one relative oasis: Poland, the largest of the 10 ex-communist states that joined the EU in recent years. Its economy has seen unusual dynamism given the difficult times, thanks in some part to massive infrastructure projects in recent years as Poland prepares to co-host this summer's European football championships with Ukraine.
But economists fear that its economy, too, could lose momentum after the Euro 2012 and with far-ranging austerity measures set to start taking effect this year in an effort to keep state debt from spiraling out of control.
But for now, anger is clearly greater in Hungary and Romania, and in both places the unfolding developments are shaped greatly by the legacy of communist rule.
In Hungary, Orban has justified his upending of the country's laws by arguing that the former communists and their way of thinking were never purged entirely from democratic Hungary.
Romania sees many of its problems exacerbated by the continued rule of some former communists, including President Traian Basescu, 60, who under Ceausescu was a ship captain for the state shipping company Navrom in Antwerp. That was a position of privilege which allowed him to earn coveted hard currency.
Feeding frustration is a sense that there is too little transparency over the doings, past and present, of Romania's leaders.
More than two decades after the overthrow of Ceausescu, authorities have opened only a handful of the files of the former dreaded Securitate secret police, which had 760,000 informers in a nation of 22 million. Former agents are believed to be active in politics, business and the media — though the public has never been given the full picture.
Also, only a handful of senior officials were ever tried for the mass shootings of unarmed civilians in the 1989 revolution, perpetuating a sense that that story, too, is being covered up.
A political analyst who has studied the revolutions of Eastern Europe, Christopher Chivvis with the RAND Corporation, sees many of today's injustices as being rooted in the overly rapid move toward a market economy in the 1990s.
When state-run industries were privatized then, it was generally only the former communist apparatchiks who knew how to maneuver the system to take hold of them and run them.
"Those who had the know-how — the former regime officials — were able to snatch up large amounts of former state property in ways that ultimately entrenched their position in society and in the state," said Chivvis, who is also a professor in European studies at Johns Hopkins University.
Many Romanians express deep frustration over this.
"We still have unanswered questions regarding shady privatization deals made in the 90s," said Cristina, a Romanian woman who asked that her last name not be published because she works for the government and fears retribution.
Romania’s protests reveal mounting frustration over poverty, injustice in eastern Europe
By Associated Press, Published: January 19
BUCHAREST, Romania — Romanian cities are gripped by the worst street violence in over a decade. Slovaks seem poised to re-elect a confrontational and divisive populist. Hungary alarms the European Union with laws that erode democratic rights.
In former Soviet bloc nations now part of the EU, frustration is mounting due to economic stagnation and worrisome governance, encouraging street protests and unpredictability that could further jeopardize growth and stability in an already troubled part of the continent.
Many of the problems are common far beyond the region: indebted states hiking taxes and slashing state spending to stay solvent. But the added burdens come to a region that was already grappling with much deeper poverty and corruption than in the West before the global financial crisis hit.
In recent days, the situation has played out most dramatically in Romania, where pent-up fury with the government and an eroding standard of living exploded into days of street protests that at times turned violent. In Bucharest over the weekend, 59 people were injured in fighting that saw riot police turn tear gas on protesters who attacked them with stones and firebombs.
"What happened last weekend is only the beginning," commentator Gabriel Bejan wrote in Tuesday’s Romania Libera daily paper. "We are in an important electoral year and such confrontations will be frequent. What will they lead to when nobody seems willing to take a step back?"
Much of the frustration goes back to the way Romania transitioned to democracy after its 1989 coup against dictator Nicolae Ceausescu — with many former communists keeping control of power and resources.
The results, today, are seen in entrenched cronyism, a huge gap between rich and poor and a lack of government transparency that feeds a widespread sense of injustice.
"The Mafioso government stole everything we had!" protesters declared on banners at several of the rallies that have taken place in more than a dozen Romanian cities since Thursday and appear set to go on.
"The Mafioso government stole everything we had!" protesters declared on banners at several of the rallies that have taken place in more than a dozen Romanian cities since Thursday and appear set to go on.
Hungarians have also been taking to the streets with increased frequency in recent months over a new constitution and a blizzard of new laws that concentrate power for the right-wing Fidesz party of Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
Freedom House, a U.S. group that carries out a yearly global survey of political freedom and civil liberties, has observed "hints of re-emergent illiberalism" across central Europe, said Christopher Walker, the group’s vice president for strategy and analysis.
This year’s report, which was published Thursday, highlights what it sees as a deteriorating climate for civil liberties in Hungary due to threats to the independence of the press and the judiciary.
"Hungary has shown a bent towards illiberalism which is really inconsistent with the European idea," Walker said.
The EU agrees. On Tuesday the EU Commission launched legal challenges against Budapest over its new constitution and other laws which took effect Jan. 1, saying they undermine the independence of the national central bank and the judiciary and do not respect data privacy principles.
Orban’s tightening hold on many institutions comes thanks to an overwhelming 2010 victory for his party on the heels of near economic collapse by the previous, Socialist-led government.
But the mounting EU pressure appeared to have some effect: EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said Wednesday that he received a letter from Orban promising to modify the legislation that raised EU concerns.
In Slovakia, meanwhile, opinion polls predict a probable return to power in March elections for Robert Fico, a former left-wing prime minister who has also worried Western diplomats with a sympathetic approach toward authoritarian states. Fico took Russia’s side during its 2008 war with Georgia — bucking a trend across the former Soviet bloc to express concern over Moscow’s use of power. He has also celebrated Fidel Castro’s Cuban revolution.
In striking contrast to trouble in much of the region, there is one relative oasis: Poland, the largest of the 10 ex-communist states that joined the EU in recent years. Its economy has seen unusual dynamism given the difficult times, thanks in some part to massive infrastructure projects in recent years as Poland prepares to co-host this summer’s European football championships with Ukraine.
But economists fear that its economy, too, could lose momentum after the Euro 2012 and with far-ranging austerity measures set to start taking effect this year in an effort to keep state debt from spiraling out of control.
But for now, anger is clearly greater in Hungary and Romania, and in both places the unfolding developments are shaped greatly by the legacy of communist rule.
In Hungary, Orban has justified his upending of the country’s laws by arguing that the former communists and their way of thinking were never purged entirely from democratic Hungary.
Romania sees many of its problems exacerbated by the continued rule of some former communists, including President Traian Basescu, 60, who under Ceausescu was a ship captain for the state shipping company Navrom in Antwerp. That was a position of privilege which allowed him to earn coveted hard currency.
Feeding frustration is a sense that there is too little transparency over the doings, past and present, of Romania’s leaders.
More than two decades after the overthrow of Ceausescu, authorities have opened only a handful of the files of the former dreaded Securitate secret police, which had 760,000 informers in a nation of 22 million. Former agents are believed to be active in politics, business and the media — though the public has never been given the full picture.
Also, only a handful of senior officials were ever tried for the mass shootings of unarmed civilians in the 1989 revolution, perpetuating a sense that that story, too, is being covered up.
A political analyst who has studied the revolutions of Eastern Europe, Christopher Chivvis with the RAND Corporation, sees many of today’s injustices as being rooted in the overly rapid move toward a market economy in the 1990s.
When state-run industries were privatized then, it was generally only the former communist apparatchiks who knew how to maneuver the system to take hold of them and run them.
"Those who had the know-how — the former regime officials — were able to snatch up large amounts of former state property in ways that ultimately entrenched their position in society and in the state," said Chivvis, who is also a professor in European studies at Johns Hopkins University.
Many Romanians express deep frustration over this.
"We still have unanswered questions regarding shady privatization deals made in the 90s," said Cristina, a Romanian woman who asked that her last name not be published because she works for the government and fears retribution.
Vanessa Gera reported from Warsaw, Poland. Associated Press writer Karel Janicek contributed from Prague.
Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
U.S. Likely to Press On With Missile Defense in Poland
By Marcin Sobczyk
January 12, 2012, 1:16 PM CET
The U.S. will likely keep its commitment to place missile interceptors in Poland to counter a military threat from Iran regardless of any opposition from Russia and despite defense cutbacks, a U.S. senator said Thursday.
U.S. President Barack Obama in 2009 scrapped the missile-defense plan drafted by his predecessor, George W. Bush, under which Poland would host a base near its border with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. The U.S. later proposed a new system envisaging 24 interceptors in Poland at the same location.
"Indications are that despite defense cutbacks, we’re going to maintain the commitment to build the Polish missile-defense system, and that is because the threat from Iran is growing, it’s clear that Iran’s nuclear programs are accelerating," Illinois Republican Senator Mark Kirk told reporters in Warsaw.
"My hope is that we stay on schedule for a 2018 full operational capability of 24 interceptors at Redzikowo to defend NATO and the United States," he added. "The Russians have been pretty hostile to missile defense. They say that in some way this threatens their nuclear deterrents, but we’re going to build only 24 interceptors in Poland and last I checked Russia has more than 24 nuclear weapons. … We need to defend a free, sovereign and independent Poland regardless of what Russia thinks."
Abandoning the missile-shield project in 2009 had irked Polish officials, who saw the move as part of Mr. Obama’s effort to improve relations with Russia while ignoring Poland’s strategic defense choices.
Poland was forced into the Soviet bloc after World War II and joined NATO in 1999, 10 years after the collapse of communism. Its relationship with Russia remains marred by historical disagreements.
The revival of the Polish missile-defense site plan provoked a Russian response last year, including from President Dmitry Medvedev, who in November 2011 threatened to deploy ballistic missiles to Kaliningrad if the U.S. proceeded with its plan.
Russia negotiated with the U.S. to be given access to data and operations of the U.S.-led missile-defense system as a condition for its acceptance of the project. The U.S. Congress passed restrictions on such data sharing, Senator Kirk said Thursday.
"I’ve expressed some concerns here about having Russians enter the NATO defense system. I think that’s a mistake. The Congress has passed restrictions, saying that no classified data, hit-to-kill technology, or telemetry can be given to the Russians, as well as any other data, and if there’s a proposal to give it to the Russians, that a 60-day delay be imposed," he said.
Russia has a close relationship with Iran and its president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and shares information it gets from NATO, he added.
"Dmitry Rogozin, who’s the deputy prime minister of Russia in charge of these affairs, is scheduled to go to Iran. My worry is that anything we give to him is immediately given to the Ahmadinejad government—and the whole point of the Polish missile-defense system is to defend against Iran," the senator said.
"We should not let the Russians accomplish by diplomacy what they can’t accomplish by espionage, especially given the Russian relationship with the Iranians. I believe everything that we give to the Russians immediately goes to the Iranians," he added.
He also said Russia’s perception of a military threat from Iran is "probably too low," and that if Iran manufactures a nuclear bomb, it will be able to share it with others in the Middle East, which will make nuclear weapons harder to control. This could backfire for Russia if a party hostile to Moscow, such as Chechen separatists, obtains access to the weapons, he added.
"You could see a scenario when Chechens might get access to a weapon. At that point, a weapon could be used just as well against Russians as against NATO. I think the Russians inaccurately perceive the danger," Mr. Kirk said.
US launches new missile defense program for Europe
(moving the missile shield from Poland to the Mediterranean Sea)
Wednesday, 02 March 2011
The United States is sending a special radar-equipped warship to the Mediterranean Sea next week, the first step in the development of a broad anti-ballistic missile system to protect Europe against a potential Iranian nuclear threat, the Pentagon said Tuesday.
The move marks the first of the Obama administration's four-phase plan to put land- and sea-based radars and interceptors in several European locations during the next decade.
Endorsed by NATO during a summit in Lisbon last year, the missile shield has triggered opposition from Russia and set off lengthy negotiations over the future expanded ability to shoot down ballistic missiles in the region.
John F. Plumb, principal director for Pentagon nuclear and missile defense policy, said Tuesday that the USS Monterey will leave Norfolk, Virginia, next week, heading to a six-month deployment in the Mediterranean. The ship's mission, he said, will lay groundwork for the unfolding missile defense plan there.
"Here is our first concrete demonstration of our commitment to the missile defense of our deployed forces, allies and partners in Europe," Plumb said in an interview. "We said we were going to do it, and now we're doing it."
Under the plan laid out by the Obama administration in 2009, the missile shield would begin with ship-based anti-missile interceptors and radars. Later this year, the United States plans to add land-based radars in southern Europe. Plumb said officials are still in discussions with several nations, but the exact location for those radars had not yet been determined.
In phase two, land-based interceptors would be deployed in Romania in 2015, followed by the placement of interceptors in Poland in 2018. Each phase calls for a more sophisticated and capable interceptor, culminating at the end of the decade with the deployment of the last version planned as of now.
The goal is to protect NATO nations against medium-range missile attacks, with the focus being the growing nuclear threat from Iran.
The USS Monterey is a guided missile cruiser equipped with a sophisticated Aegis radar system. Other ballistic missile defense capable ships have been deployed by the U.S. Navy to the Mediterranean since 2009, but this is the first to go under the new European defense plan.
The Bush administration first proposed stationing 10 interceptor missiles in Poland and an advanced radar in the Czech Republic. But Russia angrily objected and warned that it would station its own missiles close to Poland if the plan went through.
In September 2009, the Obama administration shelved that plan and offered the new, reconfigured phased program.
Since then, U.S. and Russian officials have been struggling to find common ground that also would allay Moscow's fears that the system could target Russian warheads or undermine their deterrence strategy.
U.S. officials are looking for ways to cooperate with Russia, including the possibility of combining sensors and sharing data. A Russian argument to have joint control over the missile defense system has been rebuffed by the United States.
Meanwhile, an Israeli a new defense system shot down an anti-tank missile fired by Palestinians at Israeli forces patrolling the Gaza border on Tuesday, an army statement said.
The Trophy is a shield system mounted on tanks that spots and shoots down incoming missiles.
"For the first time during operational activity, the Trophy system alerted and intercepted (a) missile," the written army statement said.
Lebanon's Hezbollah guerrillas, who held off a punishing Israeli offensive in 2006, destroyed or disabled some three dozen tanks in that war, more than 10 percent of the total deployed.
Trophy's developers Rafael announced earlier on Tuesday that the Unites States had completed a six-week test evaluation of the system.
===========================
- political study by Veronica Bicer
