Putin's Compromises at the NATO summit

HOME PAGE: http://putinfreakshow.blogspot.com/

MOST IMPORTANT ARTICLES AND DOCUMENTS:
http://putinfreakshow.blogspot.com/2006/12/most-important-articles-and-documents.html


As expected, NATO's MAP (Membership Action Plan) has been delayed for Ukraine and Georgia. Croatia and Albania got green NATO light, receiving the MAP, while Macedonia hasn't got it yet.

In Poland and the Czech Republic only passive military equipment will be installed, such as radars, but not (Patriot) anti-ballistic missiles, decision which will persuade Russia to change its mind on quitting the CFE Treaty:

"Washington plans to station components of its missile defense shield in Eastern Europe. Poland will host ten interceptors and the Czech Republic will have a radar station. The first interceptor could be put into airborne alert in Europe already by 2011, while the full-scale deployment of ten interceptors is to be completed by 2013." (Kommersant)

In return, Putin has promised to ease the US' difficulties in Afghanistan by various means, topic which I don't see such important, since Iraq and Afghanistan will remain open battlefields.

Ukraine is on its way out of the Russian orbite though, since "Ukraine's nuclear power company Energoatom signed a five-year contract with U.S.-based Westinghouse Electric Company to provide nuclear fuel to three Ukrainian reactors after 2020" (RIA Novosti).

Ukraine won't host military bases though, as it is prohibited by the constitution.

The Black Sea Fleet Treaty and the Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership Treaty between Russia and Ukraine further complicate the future status of Ukraine.

At the bilateral Bush-Putin summit in Sochi, in exchange for Kosovo's independence, Putin will seek to gain independence for Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transdniester and possibly even for Nagorno-Karaback, breakaway republics where Russia holds important military facilities, although the independence of these internationally not recognised states won't be gained over night, but probably it will go hand in hand with Georgia and Ukraine's NATO integration.

Mirroring Georgia's increasing pro-NATO status, Venezuela is still in the cards, stuffed with more Russian military hardware.

Since the US' planned shield in Poland and the Czech Republic, Georgia and Ukraine's future integration in NATO, as well as the fate of these breakaway provinces are all connected to the CFE Treaty one way or another, a way for bypassing the CFE treaty is sought, though by peaceful means ("The Sochi talks are seen as a chance to forge a concrete agreement on political differences over issues such as missile defence and the CFE treaty" (Russia Today)) . We'll see what will be achieved there.

The fact that Putin insisted to have a bilateral talk with the Romanian president is a good sign. Hopefully, after the discussion held in Bucharest, the US' base in Romania will lose its apetite for growing and Romania will eventually display a more balanced external policy, at least in the upcoming future.

Conclusion: Practically, as usual, Putin just seeks to gain some more time.

~by Vera


QUOTES:

Ukraine won’t host military bases as it is prohibited by the constitution.

http://www.kommersant.com/p-12300/Ukraine_NATO/


the policy pursued by the Ukrainian government will become openly pro-American

An official document called "Priorities of the Ukraine-US cooperation" (a roadmap) signed on the day of George Bush’s visit can prove this. Ukraine particularly undertook a commitment "to conduct a coordinated information policy regarding NATO," construction of a waste nuclear fuel storage facility, search for ways of technical cooperation under the antimissile system. Besides, we shall take part in military missions on the side of the United States. For instance, even before the summit was over, defense minister Yekhanurov announced that the Ukrainian troops in Afghanistan would be increased," the expert concluded.

http://www.regnum.ru/english/982001.html


In late March (2008), Ukraine's nuclear power company Energoatom signed a five-year contract with U.S.-based Westinghouse Electric Company to provide nuclear fuel to three Ukrainian reactors at the Yuzhnoukrainsky nuclear power plant in 2011-2015.

Last year, it held energetic talks with Canadian companies on the construction of CANDU (CANada Deuterium Uranium) reactors, the older relatives of the Chernobyl reactor, which exploded in 1986.

These two instances show Ukraine's desire to ease its dependence on Russia. Ukraine has 15 VVER water-moderated water-cooled reactors built during Soviet times, which use fuel imported from Russia.

Westinghouse is to supply 630 fuel assemblies for the annual recharging of at least three VVER blocks.

Ukraine acted impulsively, signing the contract with the U.S. company during negotiations on Russian fuel deliveries after 2010.

Finland has recently decided to continue buying Russian fuel for its Russian-built reactors and declined Westinghouse's offer

http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080402/102834109.html


Russia and NATO agreed that Russia would open its territory for the ground transit of nonmilitary cargo to Afghanistan, RIA Novosti reported with reference to Russia’s Ambassador to NATO Dmitry Rogozin. The parties will exchange the respective letters April 4, Rogozin said.

Regardless, the timing of Rogozin’s statement is illustrative. The ambassador confirmed Russia’s readiness to the transit after the alliance decided against granting MAP to Tbilisi and Kiev. The issue of further integration of those states into NATO has been put off at least till the end of 2008.

http://www.kommersant.com/p-12302/r_527/Afghanistan_NATO_cargo/

Washington plans to station components of its missile defense shield in Eastern Europe. Poland will host ten interceptors and the Czech Republic will have a radar station.The first interceptor could be put into airborne alert in Europe already by 2011, while the full-scale deployment of ten interceptors is to be completed by 2013

http://www.kommersant.com/p-12295/r_500/Missile_defense_Czech_U.S./

NATO's blessing of U.S. plans for a "missile shield" defense system in Europe and signs it will get the tacit consent of Russia has put pressure on Poland to wrap up talks with Washington on hosting the hardware.


the United States will meet Poland halfway on its demands, leaving Tusk with a dilemma -- whether to accept a slightly less attractive deal


"Now when NATO has backed the plan and Russia seems to have reconciled itself to the idea, Poland has little choice but to accept the shield," said Zbigniew Lewicki, an expert on Polish-U.S. relations at the Warsaw University.

the Czech Republic, its fellow former Soviet satellite, has agreed to host the second element of the shield, a giant radar that is the backbone of the system, without any military aid conditions.


Polish officials insist they will not scale down the long list of weapons they are seeking, including anti-missile Patriot batteries to shield Polish cities from a medium-range missile attack.


Analysts and diplomats say the U.S. side is ready to meet some Polish requests but sees others as unreasonable.

"Polish generals made some outlandish demands but it is not even clear whether Poland really needs the stuff they asked for,"


The Patriots are a case in point because the Pentagon and even some Polish experts doubt Poland faces a risk of being shot at from the medium range.


http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL0471743620080404?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0



(Ukraine): The treaty’s signing and ratification in April 1999 was closely linked to Ukraine’s ratification of the Black Sea Fleet Treaty. It guarantees to us the right to keep the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol for 25 years. Back when I was the prime minister, I once came to the Federation Council session that discussed the ratification of a general agreement with Ukraine. Our senators, and they were right, did not want to ratify it without Ukraine’s ratification of the Black Sea Fleet Treaty. In its turn, Ukraine did not want to ratify it without our ratification of the Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership Treaty.


http://www.kommersant.com/p876267/r_527/Evgeny_Primakov_analyses_the_NATO_summits_consequences/


Putin says Russia will support Abkhazia and S. Ossetia


http://en.rian.ru/world/20080403/102935645.html


FULL-LENGTH ARTICLES:


Ukraine's nuclear authorities are playing with fire

Ukraine Promised NATO Membership
The NATO-Ukrainian commission sits in Bucharest Friday, RIA Novosti reported. The alliance partnership with Ukraine is firm, NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer made clear when opening the event.
Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko called the NATO move historic. NATO softened yesterday the refusal to grant MAP to Ukraine and Georgia. The alliance pledged to invite two nations in future, adding that Moscow would have no influence on the membership decisions of NATO. It was clearly said at the summit that Ukraine will become NATO member, Yushchenko announced. Of all states, Ukraine is the only one that takes part in all operations of the alliance without being its member, the president reminded, confirming, however, that Ukraine won’t host military bases as it is prohibited by the constitution.
www.kommersant.com

http://www.kommersant.com/p-12300/Ukraine_NATO/


Ukrainian political analyst: NATO MAP for Ukraine and Georgia is a tool of diplomatic game between the Old Europe and USA

Read it in Russian
Rejection of Ukraine’s appeal for NATO MAP in practice has nothing to do with Ukraine. Ukraine as well as Georgia have become a tool of a diplomatic game between the Old Europe and the USA, Ukrainian political analyst Semyon Uralov told a REGNUM correspondent today, on April 4.
"Germany and France are thus gaining more of their sovereignty within NATO frameworks than they have it now. Ukraine has become just a tool of blackmailing of Americans first of all by Germans," the expert said. According to him, the Old Europe did not care about Ukraine at all, which is actually normal. "They are up to their profoundly pragmatic interests, the main one of which is, undoubtedly, easing the external influence by the USA. Their second goal is to have normal partner relation with Russia, because both Germany and the United States do comprehend "against whom" NATO is expanding. Thus, the Ukrainian opposition was lucky when Germans and French decided to reject Americans," the analyst continued.
"The resolution of the Bucharest summit means the only thing: that the policy pursued by the Ukrainian government will become openly pro-American. They want to be granted a MAP as a false cover to carry out a pro-American and anti-Russian foreign policy and a discriminating domestic policy. So, the Euroatlantists have failed only in terms of rhetoric. It will make it hem difficult for them from now on to conceal their real goals and actions. But no changes in the practical policy will take place," Uralov noted. "An official document called "Priorities of the Ukraine-US cooperation" (a roadmap) signed on the day of George Bush’s visit can prove this. Ukraine particularly undertook a commitment "to conduct a coordinated information policy regarding NATO," construction of a waste nuclear fuel storage facility, search for ways of technical cooperation under the antimissile system. Besides, we shall take part in military missions on the side of the United States. For instance, even before the summit was over, defense minister Yekhanurov announced that the Ukrainian troops in Afghanistan would be increased," the expert concluded.

http://www.regnum.ru/english/982001.html

Ukraine's nuclear authorities are playing with fire

21:01 02/ 04/ 2008
MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti commentator Tatyana Sinitsyna) - Ukrainian politicians have made one more move aimed at easing their dependence on Russia's nuclear fuel supplies.
In late March (2008), Ukraine's nuclear power company Energoatom signed a five-year contract with U.S.-based Westinghouse Electric Company to provide nuclear fuel to three Ukrainian reactors at the Yuzhnoukrainsky nuclear power plant in 2011-2015.
Last year, it held energetic talks with Canadian companies on the construction of CANDU (CANada Deuterium Uranium) reactors, the older relatives of the Chernobyl reactor, which exploded in 1986.
These two instances show Ukraine's desire to ease its dependence on Russia. Ukraine has 15 VVER water-moderated water-cooled reactors built during Soviet times, which use fuel imported from Russia. Westinghouse is to supply 630 fuel assemblies for the annual recharging of at least three VVER blocks.
Although diversification is a noble goal, the operation of nuclear power plants is highly complicated. Safety alone should encourage Ukraine to use nuclear fuel for which its nuclear power plants were designed, i.e. fuel made in Russia.
The Chernobyl tragedy should have been enough warning for Ukraine, but political ambitions have proven to be stronger than fear.
Khusein Chechenov, a member of the Russian parliamentary subcommittee on nuclear energy, said, "It was a political decision taken without due regard for economic or scientific considerations."
According to him, the contract is a mistake made deliberately to spite Moscow.
Westinghouse's fuel assemblies are 25% more expensive than those provided by Russia's TVEL Corporation and their quality is questionable. Ukraine acted impulsively, signing the contract with the U.S. company during negotiations on Russian fuel deliveries after 2010.
The contract includes quite a few reservations, such as Ukraine's right to terminate it if its regulators do not permit the use of American fuel, or if the assemblies malfunction.
Why sign an agreement with such reservations? Experts say that the use of Westinghouse assemblies in Russian-made reactors will considerably increase the risk of an accident at the Yuzhnoukrainsky nuclear power plant.
Finland has recently decided to continue buying Russian fuel for its Russian-built reactors and declined Westinghouse's offer, and the use of American fuel at the Temelin plant in the Czech Republic nearly caused an accident. Accordingly, Czech authorities have decided to use Russian technologies despite political considerations.
The management of the Paks nuclear power plant in Hungary entrusted the cleaning of fuel assemblies at its second block to the French-German company Framatome ANP. The use of an "alien" technology resulted in the malfunction of 30 fuel assemblies and almost caused an accident. The Hungarian authorities called on Russian specialists for help, who managed to remedy the situation only three and a half years later.
The International Atomic Energy Agency, which investigated the fuel-cleaning incident at Paks, rated it Level 3, a serious incident, by the International Nuclear Event Scale (INES).
The transition to new technology is a very expensive and difficult process that entails changing the mentality, infrastructure and technical policy, and retraining specialists. Countries hardly ever do this without proper preparation.
Sergei Komarov, deputy director of the Russian Institute of Regional Energy Development, said, "Using Westinghouse fuel in Russian-made reactors at Ukrainian nuclear power plants is highly risky. I would say that using equipment that has proved unreliable is an irresponsible decision."
Yuri Stuzhev, former director of Russia's first nuclear power plant in Obninsk, near Moscow, said, "Ukraine should have studied the experience of other countries. Or are diversification plans more important to it than the safety of its people? What if an accident happens at the nuclear power plant because of the use of low-quality American fuel assemblies? Who would be held responsible?"
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080402/102834109.html


Russia Sanctions Transit of NATO Nonmilitary Cargo to Afghanistan

Russia and NATO agreed that Russia would open its territory for the ground transit of nonmilitary cargo to Afghanistan, RIA Novosti reported with reference to Russia’s Ambassador to NATO Dmitry Rogozin. The parties will exchange the respective letters April 4, Rogozin said.
The matter at stake, Rogozin went on, is the delivery of mostly humanitarian cargo for the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). Russia won’t refuse to deliver the alliance’s cargo despite the clashes on potential membership of Georgia and Ukraine in NATO, RF Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said not long ago. Regardless, the timing of Rogozin’s statement is illustrative. The ambassador confirmed Russia’s readiness to the transit after the alliance decided against granting MAP to Tbilisi and Kiev. The issue of further integration of those states into NATO has been put off at least till the end of 2008.At the NATO summit in Bucharest, Uzbekistan’s President Islam Karimov also declared readiness to open the transit corridor for nonmilitary cargo of NATO.
www.kommersant.com

U.S., Czech Republic Agreed on Missile Defense

The United States and the Czech Republic have completed in Bucharest the negotiations on stationing components of the U.S. missile defense shield.
"The United States and the Czech Republic are pleased to announce the completion of negotiations on a missile defense agreement. We plan to sign the agreement in the near future," Reuters quoted the statement of both countries. The parties intend to ink the agreement in May, The Associated Press reported.Washington plans to station components of its missile defense shield in Eastern Europe. Poland will host ten interceptors and the Czech Republic will have a radar station.The first interceptor could be put into airborne alert in Europe already by 2011, while the full-scale deployment of ten interceptors is to be completed by 2013. Russia opposes deployment of the third position area of the U.S. missile defense shield in Europe, seeing it a threat to the national security.
www.kommersant.com

http://www.kommersant.com/p-12295/r_500/Missile_defense_Czech_U.S./


Pressure mounts on Poland over "missile shield"

By Adam Jasser - Analysis
WARSAW (Reuters) - NATO's blessing of U.S. plans for a "missile shield" defense system in Europe and signs it will get the tacit consent of Russia has put pressure on Poland to wrap up talks with Washington on hosting the hardware.
Poland has set tough conditions for agreeing to base 10 U.S. interceptor rockets on its soil, including that the United States spend billions of dollars on modernizing Polish air defenses.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk has also urged Washington to persuade Russia to drop its opposition, saying Warsaw can ill afford bad relations with its big neighbor and former overlord.
The final demand was that NATO endorse missile defense, after a number of Poland's European Union partners, who are also members of the alliance, reacted coolly to the idea.
With the last two requirements seemingly satisfied after this week's NATO summit, Poland will now find it hard to back out without seriously harming relations with Washington, even if it does not get all the weaponry it wants, analyst say.
Diplomats say talks on the shield are making progress. A U.S. team arrived in Warsaw this week to reassess Poland's conditions and more detailed talks will follow in coming weeks.
They predict the United States will meet Poland halfway on its demands, leaving Tusk with a dilemma -- whether to accept a slightly less attractive deal, or walk away with no new weapons and Poland's relationship with the United States badly damaged.
Picking the latter option could win Tusk some friends in Europe, where Poland's close ties with Washington have been viewed with suspicion, but would cause a backlash at home.
Analysts say the conservative opposition, led by President Lech Kaczynski, would pounce, accusing Tusk of destroying a U.S. relationship that has been the pillar of Polish security since the overthrow of communism in 1989.
That argument would resonate strongly with the Polish public, even if it is skeptical about the shield itself.
LEVERAGE
"Now when NATO has backed the plan and Russia seems to have reconciled itself to the idea, Poland has little choice but to accept the shield," said Zbigniew Lewicki, an expert on Polish-U.S. relations at the Warsaw University.
The Republican U.S. administration is keen to finalize negotiations before President George W. Bush's term in office ends later this year -- a fact some Polish officials believe gives them leverage to press their demands.
Others believe Poland runs the risk of overplaying its hand and could see the deal slip away to another European country.
They point out that the Czech Republic, its fellow former Soviet satellite, has agreed to host the second element of the shield, a giant radar that is the backbone of the system, without any military aid conditions.
Polish officials insist they will not scale down the long list of weapons they are seeking, including anti-missile Patriot batteries to shield Polish cities from a medium-range missile attack.
They point to a promise President George W. Bush gave to Tusk in Washington in March, that the United States would meet Polish expectations.

They argue the Polish public, which is largely skeptical about the shield, would not accept a deal that failed to boost Polish defenses in a tangible way.
Analysts and diplomats say the U.S. side is ready to meet some Polish requests but sees others as unreasonable.
"Polish generals made some outlandish demands but it is not even clear whether Poland really needs the stuff they asked for," one source familiar with the talks said.
The Patriots are a case in point because the Pentagon and even some Polish experts doubt Poland faces a risk of being shot at from the medium range.
"The Polish generals' argument is 'give us the toys and don't worry how we are going to use them'," a diplomat familiar with the negotiations added.
(Reporting by Adam Jasser; editing by Andrew Roche)

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL0471743620080404?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0

NATO Summit: Winners and Losers

Who won and who lost by the summit in Bucharest? Definitely, those have lost who were scampering to NATO despite the step’s possible consequences. And the consequences are obvious: society’s split in Ukraine, and aggravation in Ukraine’s and Georgia’s relations with Russia. At the same time, I would not state that Russia has won. On the one hand, the events showed that Russia’s opinion is taken into account. That can be considered a significant achievement for Russia, which strives to be a full-right player on the international arena. On the other hand, we should have no illusions: the events in Bucharest do not put the kybosh on Georgia’s and Ukraine’s aspiration to NATO.
Paradoxically as it is, I believe the U.S. is among those who won. President Bush firmly said to Ukraine and Georgia that he stands for accepting them to NATO, and thus strengthened U.S. positions in the countries’ ruling elites. Yet, Bush now faces a meeting with Vladimir Putin. I dare hope he is interested in the meeting’s success. Meanwhile, chances for success would have been smaller, had Ukraine and Georgia been put in Bucharest onto the rails leading into NATO.The summit in Bucharest passed at the background of discussion devoted to the Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership Treaty between Russia and Ukraine. Russia is interested in normal, or even good relations with Ukraine. At the same time, it is in Russia’s interests that there are more and more Ukrainians who are against the country’s accession to NATO. According to different estimations, over a half of the population is against now. I believe Russia’s exit from the treaty with Ukraine will both exacerbate the bilateral relations and increase the number of Ukrainians wishing to join NATO.There is another point too. The treaty’s signing and ratification in April 1999 was closely linked to Ukraine’s ratification of the Black Sea Fleet Treaty. It guarantees to us the right to keep the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol for 25 years. Back when I was the prime minister, I once came to the Federation Council session that discussed the ratification of a general agreement with Ukraine. Our senators, and they were right, did not want to ratify it without Ukraine’s ratification of the Black Sea Fleet Treaty. In its turn, Ukraine did not want to ratify it without our ratification of the Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership Treaty. Then, I suggested a way to exit the stalemate – to pass a two-point ratification law. First point – to ratify. Second point – to exchange ratification letters after Ukraine’s parliament issues the law on ratifying the Black Sea Fleet Treaty. The solution was found. Shall we forget that bond? We also have many other opportunities to display our discontent to Ukraine due to its current policy without breaking up the Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership Treaty.Speaking of Russia-NATO cooperation’s prospects, we have stable relations with the alliance, and there exists the Russia-NATO Council. I believe these relations will be maintained to mutual use, considering our realistic approach to NATO’s activities.

http://www.kommersant.com/p876267/r_527/Evgeny_Primakov_analyses_the_NATO_summits_consequences/

Putin says Russia will support Abkhazia and S. Ossetia
20:57 03/ 04/ 2008
MOSCOW, April 3 (RIA Novosti) - Russia will provide all the necessary support and assistance to Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the Russian Foreign Ministry said quoting President Vladimir Putin.
Georgia is seeking to regain control of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which proclaimed independence following the break up of the Soviet Union in 1991. Tbilisi accuses Moscow of encouraging separatism and interfering in its internal affairs.
"The Russian president stressed that Russia is not unsympathetic to the aspirations and problems to the two republics' population, where many Russian nationals live," the ministry said.
Earlier the presidents of the two breakaway republics expressed in a statement to Putin their concerns over the "aggressive course by the Georgian authorities to destabilize the situation in the conflict zones, Georgia's militarization, the build up of offensive weapons and troops close to the borders of the [self-proclaimed] republics."
The Russian president said that all Georgia's attempts to resolve the situation by applying pressure on Abkhazia and South Ossetia are senseless.
"Any attempts to apply political, economic or especially military pressure on Abkhazia and South Ossetia are futile and counterproductive," the ministry said citing Putin.
Sergei Bagapsh, the president of Abkhazia, said in an interview with RIA Novosti that Putin's statement would "guarantee security for our republics. This is how I understood it."
Two weeks ago the State Duma, Russia's lower house of parliament, proposed that the president and the government consider the issue of whether to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Ex-Soviet breakaway regions have stepped up their drive for independence since Kosovo's declaration of independence on February 17. Abkhazia and South Ossetia, along with Moldova's Transdnestr, have since asked Russia's parliament, the United Nations and other organizations to recognize their independence.
Peacekeeping in the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict zone is currently carried out by collective CIS forces staffed with Russian service personnel. The Georgian-South Ossetian conflict area is controlled by joint forces also including Russian peacekeepers.

http://en.rian.ru/world/20080403/102935645.html